Prada reported Q2 results which were weaker than market expectations, leading to an 8% fall in share price today. Revenue missed by ~4%, with growth slowing sharply from low-teens to +3% in Q2.
| KPI | Reported (€m) | Consensus (€m) | Miss | Exabel (€m) | Predicted Miss |
| Revenue | 1,399 | 1,467 | 4.6% | 1,420 | ✅ 3.2% |
| Retail | 1,238 | 1,293 | 4.3% | 1,245 | ✅ 4.5% |
| Prada retail | 819 | 854 | 4.1% | 838 | ✅ 1.9% |
| Miu Miu retail | 403 | 426 | 5.2% | 393 | ✅ 7.6% |
Exabel’s models predicted this well in advance of results, by combining alternative data from our vendor partners Consumer Edge, Facteus and Sandalwood, as well as Google Trends data. Leveraging our latest advances in hierarchical KPI modeling, our revenue model is highly accurate with an average error (MAPE) of 2.4% over the last 8 quarters.
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Disclaimer & Explainer
This document is provided by Exabel AS. It is for information purposes only. It is not an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity and it does not contain investment advice. The information in this document shall not be relied on in making any investment decision or in connection with any contract or otherwise. Exabel AS makes no representation regarding, and accepts no liability or duty of care for, the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this document or its fitness for any particular purpose or use.
This case study is presented post-mortem as an example of the research that can be conducted on the Exabel platform. The Exabel Research Team follows a principled approach to mapping and modelling alternative data signals to company-reported KPIs in collaboration with our data partners. This analysis is representative of an Exabel account with access to only the specified vendors, it is not standalone Exabel analysis.
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